Ε7203 - EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

INSTRUCTORS

COURSE KEY ELEMENTS

COURSE CONTENT:

A. Lectures

• Long-term, medium-term and short-term earthquake prediction. Minimization of effects and protection measures.
• Earthquake Early Warning Systems.
• Seismic cycle. Statistical forecast and estimation of the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake. Precursory phenomena, mechanisms of deformation of the Earth's crust – dilatation theory.
• Seismic zones, extreme values method, seismic gaps (type A and B), seismic quiescence, chaos theory.
• Seismic anisotropy and temporal changes of shear-wave splitting parameters in tectonic and volcanic environments.
• Foreshocks, migration of seismic activity, variations of the seismic wave’s velocity.
• Ground deformation maps, tsunamis, groundwater level and temperature changes, electromagnetic field fluctuations, chemical changes and radon release.
• Changes in seismic activity in space and time, methods of estimating static stress changes, models of decelerating ‐ accelerating seismicity.
• Application of earthquake prediction methods in volcanic environments.

B. Practical and Laboratory Exercises

PART A: Seismotectonic analysis exercises in active areas of Greece

PART B: Exercises for determining the constants a and b of the Gutenberg-Richter law using the entire earthquake catalogue and the extreme values method, using the least squares method.

PART C: Exercises for calculating the probability of occurrence of a future earthquake and determination of ground deformation.

PART D: Stress transfer determination exercises (static Coulomb stress changes).

PART E: Estimation of earthquake occurrence by means of shear-wave splitting

LEARNING ACTIVITIES - TEACHING METHODS:

PLANNED LEARNING ACTIVITIES:

ASSESSMENT METHODS AND CRITERIA

The assessment process is conducted in Greek with a final examination of the entire syllabus and presentation of individual work on a specific earthquake forecasting methodology and includes:

I. LECTURES (50%)      

• · Individual Report and Oral Presentation per Student

II. PRACTICE EXERCISES (50%)

• · Written exam with Solving Exercises and Problems

The evaluation criteria of the course and the participation rates are described in the syllabus and student handbook.

RECOMMENDED BIBLIOGRAPHY

Suggested Literature:

• Α. Τσελέντης, Σύγχρονη σεισμολογία, [Κωδ. ΕΥΔΟΞΟΣ: 9774]
• Β. Κ. Παπαζάχος, Γ.Φ. Καρακαΐσης, Π. Μ. Χατζηδημητρίου, Εισαγωγή στη σεισμολογία, [Κωδ. ΕΥΔΟΞΟΣ: 11254]
• F. Bianco, L. Scarfı, E. Del Pezzo and D. Patane, 2006. Shear wave splitting changes associated with the 2001 volcanic eruption on Mt Etna. Geophys. J. Int., 167, 959–967.
• S. Crampin, T. Volti and R. Stefánsson, 1999. A successfully stress-forecast earthquake. Geophys. J. Int. 138, 1–5.
• G. Kaviris, P. Papadimitriou, Ph. Kravvariti, V. Kapetanidis, A. Karakonstantis, N. Voulgaris and K. Makropoulos, 2015. A detailed seismic anisotropy study during the 2011-2012 unrest period in the Santorini Volcanic Complex. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 238, 51-88.
• G. Kaviris, I. Spingos, V. Kapetanidis, P. Papadimitriou, N. Voulgaris and K. Makropoulos, 2017. Upper crust seismic anisotropy study and temporal variations of shear-wave splitting parameters in the western Gulf of Corinth (Greece) during 2013. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 269, 148–164.
• G.C.P. King, R.S. Stein and J. Lin, 1994. Static Stress Changes and the Triggering of Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (3): 935-953.
• V. Kostoglodov, R. Bilham, J.A. Santiago, V. Manea, M. Manea and V.R. Hernández, 2002. Long-baseline fluid tiltmeter for seismotectonic studies of Mexican subduction zone. Geofísica Internacional, 41, 1, 11-25.
• E. Lagios, P. Papadimitriou, F. Novali, V. Sakkas, A. Fumagalli, K. Vlachou, and S. Del Conte, 2012. Combined Seismicity Pattern Analysis, DGPS and PSInSAR Studies in the Broader Area of Cephalonia (Greece). Tectonophysics, vol. 524-525, 43-58.
• K.C. Makropoulos and P.W. Burton, 1985. Seismic Hazard in Greece: I Magnitude recurrence. Tectonophysics, 117, 205-257.
• K.C. Makropoulos and P.W. Burton, 1985. Seismic Hazard in Greece: II Ground Acceleration. Tectonophysics, 117, 259-294.
• M. Matsushima, Y. Honkura, N. Oshiman, S¸. Barıs¸, M. K. Tuncer, S. B. Tank, C. Celik, F. Takahashi, M. Nakanishi, R. Yoshimura, R. Pektas, T. Komut, E. Tolak, A. Ito, Y. Iio, and A. M. Isıkara, 2002. Seismoelectromagnetic Effect Associated with the I˙zmit Earthquake and Its Aftershocks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92, 1, pp. 350–360.
• E.A. Okal and C.E. Synolakis, 2008. Far-field tsunami hazard from mega-thrust earthquakes in the Indian Ocean. Geophys. J. Int., 172, 995–1015.
• A.O. Öncel and M. Wyss, 1999. The major asperities of the 1999 Mw=7.4 Izmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decades before it. Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 143, 3, 501–506.
• P. Papadimitriou, 2008. Identification of seismic precursors before large earthquakes: Decelerating and accelerating seismic patterns, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, B04306.
• C.O. Sanders and H. Kanamori, 1984. A seismotectonic analysis of the Anza Seismic Gap, San Jacinto Fault Zone, southern California. Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth, Vol. 89, B7, 5873–5890.
• R.S.J. Sparks, 2003. Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 210, 1-15.
• R.S. Stein, A.A. Barka and J.H. Dieterich, 1997. Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 128, 594–604.
• S. Wiemer and M. Wyss, 1994. Seismic Quiescence before the Landers (M = 7.5) and Big Bear (M = 6.5) 1992 Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 84, 3, 900-916.
• M. Wyss and S. Wiemer, 1999. How Can One Test the Seismic Gap Hypothesis? The Case of Repeated Ruptures in the Aleutians. Pure Appl. Geophys., 155, 259 – 278.
• M. Wyss, C.G. Sammis, R.M. Nadeau and S. Wiemer, 2004. Fractal Dimension and b-Value on Creeping and Locked Patches of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 410–421.

Related scientific Journals:

• Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, SSA Journals
• Geophysical Journal International, Oxford University Press
• Journal of Geophysical Research, AGU Publications
• Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Journal, Elsevier
• Tectonophysics, Journal, Elsevier